This is the gist of today’s morning brief, which you can receive in your inbox every Monday through Friday by 6:30 AM.
A striking headline returns to the investing world this week.
The latest inflation readings from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) showed slowing growth. Of note, egg prices continued to fall, as reported by Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma. love to see it.
Still, Friday’s Consumer Sentiment Report showed that inflation expectations were gradually rising, confusing the inflation outlook. Gasoline prices, which are up 17 cents across the country from a month ago, do just that.
Meanwhile, billionaire Warren Buffett spoke poetically about investment opportunities in Japan just weeks after Berkshire Hathaway’s high-profile shareholder meeting.
Then came the earnings season for major banks such as JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK) and PNC (PNC). Investors have paid off for most of the quarter despite bank executives warning of economic storm clouds and further repercussions from his March industry turmoil that led to the bankruptcies of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. bottom.
“Higher, longer [rates] A recession, stagflation, declining trading volumes and many other things come with it,” JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon told analysts on the earnings call.
And finally, all three major US stock market indices ended the week higher.
All this frenetic activity could mean we missed a few things in the market this week.
10 things you missed at the market this week
1. Financial Warning: Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein told Yahoo Finance Live that there are “holes” in First Republic Bank’s financial statements (video above). He also said he will be interviewing Kim Kardashian soon as part of his popular interview show.
2. Advantages of mixed economy data: “The problem for many investors right now is that depending on which series you watch, you can build quite a variety of narratives about the economy,” said Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid.
“On the other hand, a range of leading indicators points to a US recession next year, consistent with our own view from Deutsche Bank Research,” Reed added. “But if you want to take the opposite view, unemployment is at its lowest level in decades, high levels of vacancies by historical standards and financial markets are facing SVB-related turmoil. Mostly ignoring, and I can point to growing signs: Inflation is easing and the Fed is about to put a moratorium on rate hikes.”
3. More earnings on the way: “We are bullish on Netflix’s Q1 2023 results as management believes they are optimistic about P&L growth. [profit and loss] from a paid sharing implementation,” writes Wells Fargo analyst Steve Cahall.
4. Shiny Gain: Gold prices (GC=F) are just a stone’s throw from the summer 2020 record high of $2,075 an ounce. Gold prices are up 13% year-to-date as investors seek safe havens after the banking industry turmoil.
5. Building Decay: Mortgage rates fell for the fifth straight week. However, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has been less responsive. He’s only up 1.1% over the last month, compared to a 6% rise in the S&P 500.
6. What about volatility? of Cboe Volatility Index The investor-challenged stock index (known as the VIX) is back below 18, the lowest level since the stock market plunge began in January 2022. Talk about a strange move just weeks after the banking crisis.
7. Still Signs of a Recession: Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a new memo to clients that there is still a 35% chance of a recession over the next 12 months. On the bright side, he has a 65% chance of not having a recession in the next 12 months.
8. Rent is no joke: Real estate appraiser Miller Samuel said in a new report that median rents in Manhattan have hit a record high of $4,175.
9. The rich get richer: LVMH’s share price hit a record high after a big quarter on the back of demand for luxury goods as the Chinese economy reopened.
This extends LVMH founder Bernard Arnault’s lead over Tesla CEO Elon Musk for the title of world’s richest person. Arnault is worth his $210 billion, up $48 billion since the beginning of the year. Musk is worth $180 billion.
10. Dr. Doom said: Nouriel Roubini, known as “Dr. Doom” for his dire economic forecasts, told Yahoo Finance Live that the current banking industry turmoil will exacerbate the “credit crisis.” environment.
“This credit crisis will plunge the US economy into recession later this year,” Roubini warned.
Brian Sotzi Editor-in-chief of Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and LinkedInAny tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, etc? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com
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