Gold outlook and analysis
- Core PCE data maintains pressure on the US dollar as gold soars.
- Next week will focus on unemployment claims data.
- Can gold bulls sustain above $2,050?
Improve your trading skills and gain a competitive edge. Get Gold Q4 Outlook now and get exclusive insights into the key market catalysts that every trader should be watching.
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Get free gold predictions
XAU/USD fundamental prediction
Gold price finally breaks through $2050 A level that has been under threat since mid-December after U.S. PCE deflator readings were lower than expected. The core index (the Fed’s recommended inflation measure) has fallen to levels last seen in April 2021, marking the first month-on-month decline in more than three years.Federal funds futures implied to be roughly below current price 160bps The percentage of cumulative rate cuts through 2024 will increase, making the first rate cut more convincing in the first quarter. That said, durable goods orders and Michigan consumer sentiment have improved significantly, demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. economy in the current restrictive monetary policy environment. Unemployment claims data continues to be a dovish drag and will be closely monitored next week.
Implied Federal Funds Futures
Source: Refinitiv
There are no significant economic indicators in the final trading week of 2023, which are likely to remain range-bound, so next week (see economic calendar below) is unlikely to see dramatic market movements. It is low. It is important to pay close attention to external risk events, such as the ongoing wars in both Ukraine and Gaza. A significant escalation could prompt a move to safety and introduce a golden bull.
gold economic calendar
sauce: Daily FX
Want to stay up to date with the most relevant trading information? Sign up for our bi-weekly newsletter to stay up to date with the latest market-moving events!
Trade smarter – Sign up for the DailyFX newsletter
Receive timely and compelling market commentary from the DailyFX team
subscribe to newsletter
technical analysis
gold price daily chart
chart creator Warren BenketasTradingView
In the XAU/USD daily chart above, we can see that the bulls are attempting to retest the overbought zone of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). As mentioned earlier, volatility is expected to be minimal next week, so prices are likely to remain around current levels.
Resistance level:
Support level:
Gold IG Customer Sentiment: Bullish
IGCS shows retail traders are currently showing net profits length In gold, 60% Percentage of traders currently holding long positions.
Want to know how market positioning affects asset prices? Our sentiment guide has the insight. Download now.
change |
long |
shorts |
OI |
every day | -6% | 2% | -3% |
weekly | 2% | 6% | 3% |
Contact and follow Warrenon on Twitter:@Wenketas
Daily FX We provide technical analysis on foreign exchange news and trends affecting global currency markets.