Gold outlook and analysis
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell steps up dovish bets.
- All eyes will be on US ISM services PMI and NFP next week.
- Overbought gold could fall next week.
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XAU/USD fundamental prediction
Gold prices turned higher on Friday after disappointing US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell offered a less aggressive message, perhaps signaling the peak of the Fed’s rate hike cycle. Mr. Powell tried to refrain from sounding too dovish, but the market ignored the sentiment. Important statements include:
“Federal funds reach into quite restrictive territory.”
“It’s too early to say so.” Financial policy Restrictive enough. ”
“We expect spending and production to slow next year.”
From a money market perspective (see table below), interest rates are expected to fall below the 4% mark by December 2024. A plethora of recent US economic data contributes to this story, along with a decline in two-year Treasury yields. towards the 4.5% support level.
Implied Federal Funds Futures
Source: Refinitiv
The upcoming week will focus on PMI data for ISM services. The more important of his two PMI announcements, as the US is primarily a services-driven economy. Gold bears will see the highlight of the week being Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) rising to 52 ticks. Strong NFP numbers could reverse gold’s recent gains, while renewed upside support comes from the restart of the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza. Gold bullion’s safe-haven appeal has been rekindled following the recent cease-fire, and any escalation could sustain price bidding.
gold economic calendar
sauce: Daily FX
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technical analysis
gold price daily chart
chart creator Warren BenketasTradingView
The daily XAU/USD price trend is expected to rise towards the March 2022 and May 2023 resistance zones. 2081.82 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is deep in overbought territory, which could signal a downside. Having said that, bulls will be keeping an eye on an impending golden cross formation that could extend the recent rally.
Resistance level:
Support level:
- 2048.79
- 2000.00
- 1987.42
- 1950.00
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Overview of technical analysis
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Daily FX We provide technical analysis on foreign exchange news and trends affecting global currency markets.