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The difference between success and failure in Forex/CFD trading depends primarily on which assets you choose to trade each week and in which direction, rather than the exact method you use to determine trade entries and exits. Very likely.
Therefore, at the beginning of the week, it is a good idea to get a complete picture of what is unfolding across the market and how that development is influenced by macro fundamentals, technical factors, and market sentiment. Recommended.
See weekly analysis below.
I wrote the previous article on the 26th.th Here are the best trading opportunities for this week in November.
- Long on the Nasdaq 100 Index. It rose 0.22% last week.
- Long cocoa futures. It rose 1.72% last week.
These trades resulted in an overall average win rate of 0.82%.
U.S. stock markets also rose last week, as rising risk-on sentiment once again supported a further decline in the USD, which appears to have established a new long-term bearish trend. Some measures of investor risk sentiment have hit their highest levels in nearly two years, but on Friday Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cast doubt on the prospects for rate hikes in the near term, leading to risk selling over the weekend. Ta.
Last week, there were some important data releases that impacted the market.
Preliminary US GDP data came in at 5.2%, better than expected, and the US Core PCE Price Index was also in line with expectations. Perhaps most importantly, inflation statistics for Germany, Spain and Australia are all lower than expected and falling. This set of data helped boost risk-on sentiment.
Another key piece of data released last week was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy meeting, which left interest rates at a relatively high level of 5.50%, but the bank left open the possibility of further rate hikes within the current range. By leaving it, I became more hawkish. The cycle has pushed the New Zealand dollar higher.
Other important data releases in last week’s schedule include:
- China Manufacturing PMI – Slightly lower than expected.
- OPEC meeting – Production cuts were agreed, but oil prices fell regardless.
- Canadian GDP – Slightly higher than expected.
- US CB Consumer Confidence – Slightly better than expected.
- U.S. unemployment claims were in line with expectations.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Slightly below expectations.
- Canada’s unemployment rate was in line with expectations.
Market volatility is likely to be lower next week as there is little release of very important data, with the exception of the influential US non-farm payrolls numbers. This week’s major data releases, in order of importance, are:
- U.S. non-farm payrolls, average hourly wages, and unemployment rate
- Bank of Canada interest rate statement and overnight interest rate
- RBA cash rate and rate statement
- US JOLTS job information
- US ISM Service PMI
- Swiss CPI (inflation rate)
- US preliminary unit consumer sentiment
- Australian GDP
- U.S. unemployment insurance claim
- China’s CPI (inflation rate)
The US Dollar Index displayed a weak bullish pin bar last week, rejecting the support level I identified on the price chart below at 102.38. However, the weekly close was once again below the prices from three and six months ago, validating the secular bear market. These are mixed signs.
This recent weakness in the dollar is supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data released three weeks ago, suggesting the Fed will cut rates rather than raise them. However, the situation was tempered on Friday by Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments casting doubt on the Fed’s short-term interest rate cuts, even though further rate hikes seem highly unlikely.
I think the dollar will fall further in the short term, but probably not this week. There is now a good chance that we will see a small technical-driven rally in the dollar or a consolidation above the support level at 102.38. This could make for a difficult week for foreign exchange trading involving the US dollar.
The USD/JPY currency pair fell sharply last week, with the Japanese yen being the strongest among the major currencies. The weekly candlestick body has swallowed up much of the recent price action, and the weekly close was just near the low. These are bearish signs, and the bearish momentum appears to be very strong here, so while there is no trend, we can say that there could be more bearish action, at least in the first few days of next week.
The USD/CHF currency pair fell significantly last week, with the CHF being the strongest among the major currencies. The weekly candlestick body has swallowed up much of the fairly recent price action, and the weekly closing price was right at the low. These are bearish signs, and the bearish momentum looks very strong here, so we can say that more bearish action is possible, at least in the first few days of next week.
Although this currency pair does not definitely show a trend, there is a long-term bearish trend here and the price is not far from the very long-term low of $0.8552.
The NZD/USD currency pair recorded strong and solid bullish candlesticks throughout the week, closing near the top of the range. The week ended with the highest weekly closing price in about four months. The kiwi was one of the strongest major currencies last week.
These are bullish signs, with tailwinds from the fact that prices are currently in a long-term bullish trend. However, this currency pair usually does not have a very reliable trend. Another concern for bulls is the strong resistance area above $0.6300, which could be the upper bound for further significant upside.
But there’s definitely bullish momentum here, and it’s likely to continue to some extent as the market begins a new week.
The Nasdaq 100 Index recorded its fifth consecutive bullish candlestick, marking its highest weekly close in 22 months and once again trading at its highest since January 2022. Despite these bullish facts, momentum slowed significantly again last week, but clearly we have a bull market here and are making new highs. However, the fact that the weekly candlesticks are clearly tied should be a cause for concern for bulls.
The Nasdaq 100 index has historically been a good investment on the long side, especially in bull markets, and with this new high, it seems like the index has received a signal that it makes sense to go long here.
I’m happy to be long the Nasdaq 100 index, but only after it closes each day at a 22-month high, as momentum has waned.
Cocoa futures have been on a strong bullish trend for over a year, and rose even further last week. The price chart below applies linear regression analysis to the past 62 weeks and graphically shows how big an opportunity this is in the long run.
The weekly candlesticks were once again very bullish.
It’s a little aggressive to enter without a pullback, especially now with price action above the upper band of the linear regression channel, but this is a strong trend and as global demand for superfoods continues to increase. It shows no signs of stopping. cocoa.
In recent years, going long on a commodity at six-month highs has become a highly profitable strategy.
I think the best trading opportunities this week are:
-
Long on the Nasdaq 100 Index after the day’s close was above 16,166.
- Long cocoa futures after the day’s close was above 4277.
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