difference between success and failure Forex/CFD trading is very likely to rely primarily on: Choose which assets to trade in which direction each weekis not the exact method you might use to determine trade entry and exit.
So, at the beginning of the week, it’s a good idea to get an overview of what’s unfolding across markets and how that development is influenced by macro fundamentals, technical factors, and market sentiment. Recommended. There are some long-term trends in the market right now that you can take advantage of and profit from.
See our weekly analysis below.
I wrote in my previous post on the 18th.th We expect the best trading opportunities this week in June to be:
- Long on the Nasdaq 100 index. The index fell 1.52% for the week.
- Longing the USD/JPY currency pair follows a pullback at key support levels such as: ¥140.79. The pair has risen solidly this week after a bullish rally at key support levels. ¥141.21.
- Long the GBP/USD currency pair. The currency pair lost 0.80% in the week.
- Cocoa futures long. Cacao futures fell 0.24% by the weekend.
My projection was for an overall quantifiable loss of 2.56% and an average loss per highlighted asset of 0.85%.
When the markets open in a week’s time, the focus will be on what has happened in Russia over the past few days that, frankly, seems very mysterious, although the situation appears to have been resolved. That in itself will be like the status quo before. Essentially, the Wagner Group, a private army recruited primarily from prisoners of war, who have fought for Russia in Ukraine, apparently more successfully than the Russian army, revolted on Friday night and marched to Moscow. captured two of Russia’s major cities before beginning its march. Prigogine said he wanted “justice”. Conflicts between the Wagner Group and Russian military commanders had been established, claiming that the Wagner Group was being deliberately depleted of supplies, which was probably true. Yesterday evening, Prigozhin called off the march and left Russia for exile in Belarus, while Wagner members were granted an amnesty. Some of Wagner’s members have enlisted in the Russian army, while others have returned to front-line positions in Ukraine.
Until the Wagner Group calls off its apparent insurgency, these developments have raised serious concerns, making it seem as if Russia is going into civil war, raising questions about control over Russia’s nuclear arsenal, and reducing grain and oil supplies. This was because exports could be interrupted.Commodity markets were probably more volatile. The stock market may have been in deep trouble. For now, none of these things are likely to happen, but that could change if the situation in Russia turns out to be unresolved. That will make analysts more seriously consider the possibility of a palace coup in Russia.
Another big focus now is Jerome Powell’s hawkish financial testimony to Congress last week, which has kept US 2-year Treasury yields higher. That’s because analysts are now almost certain that U.S. rates have not yet reached doomsday levels and that there will be no aggressive rate cuts this year. This is backed up by recent data showing that the US economy is doing relatively well. This is despite all the recent interest rate hikes and annualized inflation dropping to a relatively low 4%. Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish rhetoric helped curb the recent surge in US stock market indices.
Another notable item from last week was the UK’s unexpectedly sustained inflation data, which showed an exceptionally high annualized rate of 8.7%. Unexpected rate hike of 0.50% by the Bank of England The widely expected rate was 0.25%, but now it’s 5%. The Swiss National Bank raised interest rates by 0.25%, again as expected.
The outlook for the UK economy is now even darker, driving the British pound down despite a significant interest rate hike.
Other important data releases from last week include:
- U.S. unemployment claims – This was largely in line with expectations.
- US, UK, Germany, France flash manufacturing services and PMI – these data were significantly worse than expected except for US services, giving rise to the idea that the US economy is outperforming the UK and key regions of the eurozone. Added credibility.
Markets are likely to see the same level of volatility as last week, as some key inflation and GDP data are released next week, even though there will be no central bank policy meeting. This week’s key data releases include:in order of importance:
- US final GDP
- US Core PCE Price Index
- German GDP preliminary figures
- Canadian CPI (inflation rate)
- Canadian GDP
- Australian CPI (inflation rate)
- US CB Consumer Confidence
- ECB Forum Central Bank Discussion
Thursday is a public holiday in Italy.
The weekly price chart below is The US Dollar Index showed a small bullish candlestick last week, bucking the long-term bearish trend.
Dollar Remains Within Technically Valid Long-Term Bearish Trend, the price is a little cheaper than both 3 and 6 months ago. However, technically the US dollar is in a consolidation pattern and the forex market tends to be very dull.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week stressed that further rate hikes are likely in 2023, effectively fueling the dollar, but it is not clear if this will lead the dollar into a meaningful bullish trend.
I think it makes the most sense to focus next week on opportunities in other currencies, such as a weaker yen, rather than the US dollar.
After eight consecutive weeks of gains, we have finally seen a decline. NASDAQ 100 Index It was the past week after the price rejected the resistance level we identified at 15156.2 as shown in the price chart below. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks fueled the decline. The long term outlook looks very bullish but the market is escaping to the upside and this calendar year is already up about 40% before the half is over so a correction or consolidation is likely. I have.
We also recognize that the stock market tends to fluctuate or fall in the summer.
Now may be a good time to be cautious and stand aside. However, if the index closes firmly above the resistance level of 15156.2 later this week, we see a buy.
USD/JPY currency pair Last week saw another strong rally, hitting a seven-month high for a weekly closing and ending the week on a true high. These are bullish signs.
But the overall US dollar is not in a long-term bullish zone tendency, So there are some contradictions here. This rise is due to the very low value of the Japanese yen.
The Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-easing policy at its policy meeting two weeks ago.
As a trend trader of major currency pairs, I am long this currency pair and would like to stay long. The long-term deal just got more legitimacy after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric about rate hikes and inflation last week.
This currency pair looks like a buy.
pound/yen currency cross It rose sharply last week and also hit a seven-year high.
Before trend traders get overexcited, it’s important to keep in mind that this says more about the weak Japanese Yen than it does about the British Pound.
The GBP/USD currency pair was on the mend and seemed to hit new highs against the US dollar last week, but surprisingly strong inflation data came out following the Bank of England’s shocking 0.50% rate hike. . If the pound doesn’t rise as much as expected, it raises questions about the pound’s future.
However, the pound is still in a long-term bullish trend, so more gains are possible here. If you bet on a weak yen in the medium to long term, Another idea is to use a mix of stronger currencies, such as the British Pound.. Over the next few days, it may be wise to wait and see how the British pound reacts first.
Bitcoin took a strong bullish stance break out Over the past week, it may finally be overcoming a strong area of resistance around the big $30,000 figure that has been solid for so long. The price of Bitcoin hits a one-year high.
The main reason for this massive rise appears to be the fact that several major issuers have filed for Bitcoin to go open. ETFs, U.S. regulators have indicated their intention to deny this in the past. The recent move suggests that these big financial firms see it as likely that regulators will say yes.
The existence of bitcoin ETFs will make the cryptocurrency more accessible to retail traders and investors, but until now they have either bought bitcoin directly and worried about custody, or used futures and other derivatives. There was a need, but they may not be eligible.
Cautious traders may want to wait for ETF approval before buying, but this could mean missing out on many possible initial moves. Another approach is to Buy bitcoin after the daily closing price exceeds $31,000.
I think the best trading opportunities of the week are:
- Long the USD/JPY currency pair.
- Bitcoin long after daily close above $31,000.
- The Nasdaq 100 went long after closing above 15156.2 for the day.
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