difference between success and failure Forex/CFD trading is very likely to rely primarily on: Choose which assets to trade in which direction each weekis not the exact method you might use to determine trade entries and exits.
So, at the beginning of the week, it’s a good idea to get an overview of what’s unfolding across markets and how that development is influenced by macro fundamentals, technical factors, and market sentiment. Recommended. There are currently some valid long-term trends in the market that can be exploited to your advantage. See our weekly analysis below.
I wrote in my previous post on the 14th.th We believe the best trading opportunities this week are:
- Long on the Nasdaq 100 index. The index ended the week up 4.08%.
- Day trade the USD/JPY currency pair on the long side. The currency pair finished the week higher at 1.60%.
- Buy gold if it rebounds convincingly at key support levels such as $1949 and $1918. This was not set up.
- If the day closes below $65, it will fall below WTI crude. This was not set up.
My prediction was an overall win of 5.68% and an average profit of 1.42%.
Currently, the market is dominated by two ongoing debates in the US. One question is whether the Federal Reserve has truly completed its rate-hiking cycle, and how the impasse over the debt ceiling will be resolved. (no one really expected America to default). The dollar and stock markets have oscillated up and down as opinions on these issues come and go, with analysts wondering what action the Fed is likely to take at its next policy meeting in June. It’s scouring all the data in the U.S. for clues about
we have seen US retail sales data weaker than expected But the hawkish rhetoric of FOMC members over the past week has also boosted the US dollar, perhaps supporting the argument for rate hikes overall. Most stock indices have seen gains, but the big gains have been in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 index noting a long-term all-time high on Friday, closing more than 4% higher than Monday’s opening. It’s been a week. Seen for the first time in over a year.
On the inflation side, Canada’s CPI data beat expectations, rising 0.7% monthly compared with just 0.5%. The drop in core interest rates was seen as good news, but raised some concerns about the possibility of sustained US inflation. .
Market attention will be focused on the US FOMC meeting minutes, GDP figures, and core PCE price index to be announced in the future. Apart from the US, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold a policy meeting this week and raise rates by another 25bps to 5.50%.
Other important data releases from last week include:
- US Unemployment Data – This was very close to expectations.
- US Empire State Manufacturing Index data – This is a little worse than expected.
- UK Claims Change – This is a little worse than expected.
- Australian Wage Price Index data – slightly better than expected, could see Australian inflation expectations revised down slightly.
- Australian Unemployment Data – This is much worse than expected, unexpectedly jumping from 3.5% to 3.7%. This would be more evidence that the economy is cooling and perhaps further rate hikes are not yet needed.
Markets are likely to be slightly more volatile next week compared to last week as more impactful releases are scheduled this week than last week. This week’s key data releases include:in order of importance:
- US FOMC Minutes
- US Core PCE Price Index Data
- Preliminary US GDP data
- UK CPI (inflation) data
- RBNZ Official Cash Rate and Monetary Policy Statement
- Flash manufacturing and services PMI data for the US, Germany, UK, and France.
Monday is a public holiday in Canada.
The weekly price chart below is The US Dollar Index rose modestly last week, bucking the long-term bearish trend, but held the key resistance I identified at 102.80.
Weekly candlesticks are bullish It is a candlestick, but there is a wick at the top. This candlestick is not very important and is not part of any important chart pattern.
Despite these bullish signs, the following is true. Dollar still within a valid long-term bearish trend rangeprices are lower than they were both three and six months ago.
Still nervous about trading against the US dollar next week Unless we see a strong bearish reversal soon from the 102.80 resistance.
saw the strongest rise NASDAQ 100 Index One week in the last two months or more.The pictures here are so bullishfor several reasons:
- Weekly Candlestick Ends Significantly Higherthe highest closing price in more than a year.
- Weekly Candlesticks Closed Well Above Resistance This is what I identified at 13730, indicating a bullish breakout situation.
- Equity markets are generally bullish, and the S&P 500 index is technically bullish, but not by much.
The price has a lot of upside potential as there is no significant resistance level until the 15000 area.
Nasdaq 100 still has room to buybut the bulls should be concerned if it retreats below 13730 soon.
GBP/USD currency pair Printed a weak bearish near dodge candlestickclosed above the key support level of $1.2422 in a relatively narrow range.
Last week’s U.S. dollar rose again, calling into question the long-term bullishness of the currency pair, although technically the bullishness is still valid. However, it’s worth noting that prices here have yet to fall significantly from their recent long-term highs. The British pound has held up much better against the resurgent dollar than the euro and other major currencies.
Traders aggressive in trades with potentially high risk-to-reward ratios should consider buying a pullback at key support levels here for the next week at least until the daily close falls below $1.2300. I might.
USD/JPY currency pair solid rise last weekprinting a bullish sharp candlestick that ended not far from the high of the range.
A long-term bullish trend has now been confirmed in action, with last week’s close being the best weekly close in six months.
Japanese yen expected to fall in the long runTherefore, if the dollar continues to rise, this currency pair will be on the lookout.
Technically there’s good reason to be bullish, but a careful look at the price chart below shows that the high end of the ¥138 is a very important pointso the nearby resistance level may be too strong to break immediately.
As a trend trader of major currency pairs, I am long this currency pair and would like to stay long unless I see a big drop. Note that long term traders will need a wide stop loss due to the extremely high volatility of the yen.
of sugar ETF CANE is up more than 40% in price since the beginning of 2023. After an initial fairly deep bearish retracement 23 years ago, Rebounded but failed to regain its previous spectacular bullish momentum.
However, bearish candlesticks were recorded last week and only a small drop was seen. We feel that a deeper retracement below $13.50 for the day’s closing could mark the end of the bullish trend.
It’s always hard to predict where a strong trend like this will reverse, but bulls need to realize that prices have moved up significantly and the trend may be very overextended. there is. Therefore, I would like to wait for a consolidation followed by a bullish breakout before entering another long trade here.
There are likely resistance levels at $14.25 and $15.00.
Historically, trading new 6-month high breakouts in commodities based on volatility has been very worthwhile. trailing stop.
of cocoa ETF CANE has registered a price increase of over 27% since early 2023. It has been steadily rising since November, hitting long-term highs a few weeks ago and accelerating its bullish momentum. A very large gain on Friday, hitting a five-year high at the close of the day, and closing at the day’s highs are both bullish signs.
It’s always hard to predict where a strong trend like this will reverse, but bulls need to realize that prices have moved up significantly and the trend may be very overextended. there is. Therefore, I would like to wait for a consolidation followed by a bullish breakout before entering another long trade here.
There may be resistance at $40.
Historically, using volatility-based trailing stops to trade new six-month high breakouts in commodities has been very valuable.
I think the best trading opportunities of the week are:
- Long the Nasdaq 100 Index.
- Long the USD/JPY currency pair.
- Go long the GBP/USD currency pair if we see a strong bullish pullback at key support levels.
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