USOIL analysis
Commodities fell for the third consecutive week and their lowest level in more than a year on fears of a recession that could weigh on demand. His PMI for China he recorded 49.2 in April. It marked the first time since December that factory activity in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, has contracted. In addition, concerns about banks rose again in the US, putting local lenders in the spotlight.Regulators are the troubled First Republic’s JP Morgan Chase but then PacWest’s stock price plummeted as the investigation continued. “Strategic asset sale”.
However, a series of factors, including an expansion in the manufacturing PMI since the end of last year and a strong service PMI, eased recession fears in the final days of last week and boosted the oil demand outlook. But most importantly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has opened the door to a moratorium on its aggressive tightening cycle after the March 2022 rate hike. This allowed markets to welcome Friday’s strong jobs data as a sign of a recession rather than focusing on its implications for monetary policy. Domestic travel to China surged by more than 70% compared to last year.
improved sentiment, US oil Record a big rebound. This gives the crosshairs a significant 75.60-94 area. This includes the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 2023 high/low drop. A daily close above that would shift the immediate bias upwards, but at this stage we would be wary of bigger advances challenging 80.95.
On the other hand, concerns about US banks and a slowdown in the economy persist, and mixed economic data in China are creating headwinds for the US. US oilAs long as the rebound remains below the aforementioned key resistance, the risk of a fresh slide towards 62.42-61.72 remains. However, given OPEC+’s production cuts, a sustained downturn remains elusive.
Markets now expect the latest CPI inflation rates in the US and China to see consumer demand in the world’s largest economies.
