USD/CAD remained range bound between 1.3313/3566 last week, no change in outlook. Overall, the pair is seen extending his triangle consolidation pattern from 1.3976. A break above 1.3566 resumes resistance at 1.3313 to 1.3666 and then a pullback towards 1.3860. However, a firm break of the 1.3313 support would invalidate this view and indicate that a deeper correction is underway.
On a larger scale, as long as the 55W EMA (currently 1.3327) holds, the uptrend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still likely to resume to 1.3976 at a later stage. However, a continuation of the trade below the EMA and a 38.2% retracement from 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 will increase the likelihood of a bearish reversal. The next move should be deeper to a 61.8% retracement at 1.2758.
Longer term, the price action from 1.4689 (2016 high) could only be seen as a consolidation pattern, possibly completing at 1.2005. So, we expect the uptrend from 0.9506 (2007 low) to resume at a later stage. With the 55 million EMA (currently 1.3031) holding, this will continue to be a favorable case.
