USD Forecast – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Gold
- of USDRise on sharp rise in US Treasury yields, as measured by the DXY index
- US dollar strengthens after Chairman Powell’s hawkish remarks
- In this article we will consider: euro/usd, USD/JPY, Australian dollar/US dollar and gold price Analyzing the main levels to watch in the coming days from a technical point of view
Most read: Gold, silver price rise, palladium free fall, key levels of XAU/USD, XAG/USD
The broad dollar opened on a subdued note, but rebounded in afternoon trading as yields soared after a key Treasury auction dampened demand for U.S. Treasuries. Subsequently, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made hawkish remarks at a committee hosted by the IMF, further accelerating the dollar’s rise.
The FOMC chairman said in public remarks that he was not convinced that policymakers had achieved a sufficiently restrained stance to return inflation to the 2.0% goal on a sustained basis. He also acknowledged that there was no guarantee that further progress would be made in easing price pressures and that stronger growth could justify raising interest rates. After all, the DXY index rose nearly 0.4% on the day.
Taken together, Powell’s comments suggest that the central bank is not 100% convinced that the rate hike cycle is over. This means we could see another rate hike next month or in January, especially if financial conditions continue to ease, as they have since late October (tech stocks ignore today’s performance). (The stock is showing a bullish decline).
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Related: Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD/USD Extends Bearish Reversal on Fakeout Fallout
For the time being, expectations will remain fluid, with sentiment changing depending on the strength and weakness of data releases. For this reason, it is essential for traders to keep an eye on the economic calendar for the coming days and weeks. That said, one important report worth keeping an eye on is his October Consumer Price Index survey, which will be released next Tuesday.
Analysts forecast that headline CPI rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month, with the annual rate expected to fall to 3.3% from 3.7% previously. Meanwhile, the core gauge is expected to increase by 0.3% monthly, and the annual reading stands at 4.3%, unchanged from September.
The Fed is sensitive to incoming information and concerned about inflation risks, so any upward deviation in official data from consensus expectations should push bond yields higher and strengthen the case for higher long-term rates. This scenario is positive for the US dollar, but negative for gold, the euro, the Australian dollar, and the yen.
Interested in the expected path of EUR/USD And what are the notable market catalysts? Find out more in our Q4 Euro Trading Forecast. Download now!
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EUR/USD technical analysis
After bouncing off the Fibonacci resistance at 1.0765, EUR/USD has fallen sharply and the exchange rate is now below the lower support band at 1.0650. Bulls must protect this lower bound at all costs. If it fails to do so, the pair could falter and the price could head towards the trendline support at 1.0555. If it weakens further, we could see a retest of the 2023 lows.
If the market turns and sentiment swings in favor of the bulls, the first technical barrier of note will appear at 1.0765, with the 200-day simple moving average at the 38.2% Fib retracement of the July and October declines. matches. A clearing of this important level confluence could strengthen the bullish momentum and pave the way for a move towards 1.0840.
EUR/USD technical chart
EUR/USD chart created using TradingView
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY
USD/JPY retook a pullback last week, but has reaffirmed its upward momentum, breaking through an important ceiling at 150.90 and charging towards 2022 and 2023 highs, just short of the psychological mark of 152.00. With prices trending upwards and approaching key tech zones, traders need to exercise caution as the Tokyo government could intervene at any moment to curb speculative activity and prevent further yen depreciation. There is.
In the event of currency intervention by the Japanese authorities, USD/JPY could quickly fall below 150.90 and head toward the 149.00 handle. Further declines will shift focus to 147.25, followed by 146.00. If Tokyo stays away from the currency market and allows the currency to move above 152.00, it could potentially move higher toward the upper end of the medium-term upward channel at 153.40.
USD/JPY technical chart
USD/JPY chart created using TradingView
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|
change |
long |
shorts |
OI |
| every day | 1% | -7% | 0% |
| weekly | twenty five% | -40% | 2% |
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, erasing all the gains accumulated after last week’s bullish breakout, which turned out to be a fakeout. After this pullback, the pair reached important support around 0.6350. This area-level consistency is extremely important. If it fails to hold, it could fall towards 0.6325. Further weakness could result in a return to this year’s lows.
Despite the recent decline in the Australian dollar, the bullish scenario should not be completely ruled out. That said, if the bulls engineer a reversal and trigger a rebound from current levels, overhead resistance will appear around the 0.6400 handle, followed by 0.6460. Success in overcoming this technical barrier could reignite bullish momentum and open the door for a rally towards November’s highs near 0.6500.
AUD/USD technical chart
AUD/USD chart created using TradingView
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|
change |
long |
shorts |
OI |
| every day | -1% | 1% | 0% |
| weekly | 2% | 0% | 1% |
gold technical analysis
Earlier this week, gold reversed lower as bulls failed to break through the key ceiling in the $2,010/$2,015 area. However, XAU/USD has started to rise after this pullback, with the price encountering support near the 200-day simple moving average before a small rebound. If the upward pace accelerates in the coming trading sessions, the first resistance will appear at $1,980, followed by $2,010/$2,015.
Conversely, if the sellers return and regain dominance in the financial markets, the first floor to watch would be located at $1,945, which coincides with the 200-day SMA. Gold may find a foothold in this region on the downside, but a decline could prompt a fall to $1,920. Under this area, the focus shifts to he $1,900.
