Article author: Trendforce
TrendForce predicts that annual growth in 2024 will remain between 2% and 5%, with shipments slightly above pre-pandemic levels.
According to TrendForce, the notebook inventory channel showed healthy levels in the second quarter. Both North America and Asia Pacific are showing healthy demand for mid- and lower-tier consumer models. This is not just a replenishment competition. This is a strategic move to prepare for the expected back-to-school wave in the third quarter.
And here’s the surprising thing. Chromebook shipments peaked just as Google was preparing to introduce licensing fees. This surge brought notebook shipments to his 42.52 million units in the second quarter, marking a 21.6% jump on a quarterly basis. However, looking at the big picture, first-half shipments totaled 77.5 million units, down 23.5% year-on-year.
TrendForce further points out that growth momentum in the second half of 2023 will be supported by the purchasing power of end consumers. But the economic outlook for her two major notebook markets, the United States and Europe, is shrouded in uncertainty, and typical seasonal purchase demand has slowed. Moreover, some of this demand has already been met in the second quarter. As a result, notebook shipments in the third quarter are expected to reach up to 44.13 million units, with a modest growth of 3.8%. Annual notebook shipments are expected to reach 163 million units, down 12.2% year over year.
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Looking ahead to 2024, the technology outlook looks promising. Global notebook shipments are increasingly likely to recover as market inventories align with healthier indicators and expected inflationary pressures begin to stabilize. But it’s not just roses. The global consumption environment is still feeling the pinch, and although demand is gradually increasing, there are still no strong signs of strength in the market.
TrendForce predicts that annual growth in 2024 will remain between 2% and 5%, with shipments slightly above pre-pandemic levels. After inventory adjustments, the broader market is expected to recover modestly. But all eyes are on the twin giants of the consumer market, China and the United States, to see if they can actually expect a more robust surge in shipments.
In the second half of the year, the lack of seasonal market activity coupled with weak demand not only affected corporate profitability but also posed challenges to budgeting for the coming year. At the same time, the rise of AI and its emphasis on underlying infrastructure could sideline IT spending. Windows 10 is scheduled to reach end of support in October 2025, but a wave of business device upgrades is expected to begin in 2024. However, TrendForce believes the momentum and urgency of this upgrade wave is likely to continue to grow based on demand for commercial notebooks. Being delayed and contained, shipments are unlikely to increase significantly.
In terms of consumer demand, looking at the world’s economic powers, China is facing challenges due to a sluggish economic and employment environment, and has a somewhat pessimistic view of market development. In contrast, demand in the US showed a strong recovery in 2023, but there are indications that growth is expected to slow in 2024. After two years of demand readjustment, Europe could see a consumer rebound in the second half of the year as the broader economic picture brightens. . Finally, Southeast Asia is driven by a fast-growing consumer segment, with shipments expected to be on the rise, indicating moderate growth in consumer devices.