Watch: ECB and US inflation announcements could trigger price movements
- CPI inflation news released from the US on Wednesday will provide insight into the health of the US economy
- Thursday’s ECB interest rate announcement will influence market mood
- The market may form new trends
Traders are divided on whether the ECB will raise interest rates this week. The lack of certainty on this issue means the price could go either way after the announcement. US inflation statistics are due to be released this week. The “hot” numbers are us federal reserve system It will likely continue its hawkish interest rate policy.
Foreign exchange
pound dollar
A busy week for traders of the Pound currency pair begins on Tuesday with the release of the latest UK employment figures. July GDP data will be released to traders and investors on Wednesday.
USD Basket Chart – Daily Price Chart
Source: IG
USD Basket Chart – Hourly Price Chart
Source: IG
Economic data reports that may affect the value of the Pound currency pair:
Time is expressed in BST.
Tuesday, September 12th
- 7am: UK employment statistics. The unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4.2% in July, while wages are expected to rise by 8%.
- 3pm: July US factory orders. Analysts expect orders to increase by 0.1% from the previous month.
Wednesday, September 13th
- 7am: UK July gross domestic product (GDP) report. Growth is expected to be -0.3% month-on-month and 0.2% in the three months to July.
- 1:30pm: August US CPI. The CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% to 0.3% from the previous month and by 3.2% to 3.4% from a year ago. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2%, unchanged from last month, and by 4.7% to 4.5% year-on-year.
Thursday, September 14th
- 1:15 p.m.: ECB interest rate decision. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 4.25%, but could be raised by 25 basis points.
- 1:30pm: August US Producer Price Index (PPI). PPI is expected to rise from 0.3% to 0.4% month-on-month, while retail sales are expected to rise from 0.7% to 0.2%.
Friday, September 15th
- 3pm: September US Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Analysts expect the latest index reading to be 69.5, the same as last month.
euro dollar
The next announcement on euro zone interest rates is scheduled for Thursday, and markets are divided on whether the ECB will raise rates again. This outcome risks pushing the eurozone into recession, but controlling inflation remains the bank’s top priority.
EURUSD Chart – Daily Price Chart
Source: IG
EURUSD Chart – Time Price Chart
Source: IG
Economic data reports that may affect the value of the euro currency pair:
Time is expressed in BST.
Tuesday, September 12th
- 10am: September German ZEW index. Analysts expect the index to rise to -12.
- 3pm: July US factory orders. Analysts expect orders to increase by 0.1% from the previous month.
Wednesday, September 13th
- 1:30pm: August US CPI. The CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% to 0.3% from the previous month and by 3.2% to 3.4% from a year ago. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2%, unchanged from last month, and by 4.7% to 4.5% year-on-year.
Thursday, September 14th
- 1:15pm: ECB interest rate decision. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 4.25%, but could be raised by 25 basis points.
- 1:30pm: August US Producer Price Index (PPI). PPI is expected to rise from 0.3% to 0.4% month-on-month, while retail sales are expected to rise from 0.7% to 0.2%.
Friday, September 15th
- 3:00 PM: September Consumer Sentiment in Michigan, USA. Analysts expect the latest index reading to be 69.5, the same level as last month.
index
S&P500
The US CPI inflation report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, will allow investors to predict the direction the Fed’s next interest rate decision will take. “Hot” inflation increases the likelihood of further interest rate spikes, which would be bad news for “risk-on” assets.
S&P 500 Chart – Daily Price Chart
Source: IG
S&P 500 – Hourly Price Chart
Source: IG
Economic indicators that are likely to affect the value of U.S. stocks:
Time is expressed in BST.
Tuesday, September 12th
- 3pm: July US factory orders. Analysts expect orders to increase by 0.1% from the previous month.
Wednesday, September 13th
- 1:30pm: August US CPI. The CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% to 0.3% from the previous month and by 3.2% to 3.4% from a year ago. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2%, unchanged from last month, and by 4.7% to 4.5% year-on-year.
Thursday, September 14th
- 1:15pm: ECB interest rate decision. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 4.25%, but could be raised by 25 basis points.
- 1:30pm: August US Producer Price Index (PPI). PPI is expected to rise from 0.3% to 0.4% month-on-month, while retail sales are expected to rise from 0.7% to 0.2%.
Friday, September 15th
- 3:00 PM: September Consumer Sentiment in Michigan, USA. Analysts expect the latest index reading to be 69.5, the same level as last month.
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