Wall Street stocks opened mostly flat on Thursday as investors digested a key consumer inflation report that could influence whether the Federal Reserve decides to raise or leave interest rates unchanged. .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), S&P 500 (^GSPC), and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC) are all hovering around the flatline.
Wall Street on Thursday was focused on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed that inflation remained flat in September but rose slightly faster than economists expected. Consumer prices in September rose 3.7% year-on-year, matching the rate of increase in August. Compared to the previous month, consumer prices rose by 0.4%.
Major U.S. stock indexes posted their fourth straight victory on Wednesday as investors ignored much larger-than-expected inflation data.
Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting showed that most policymakers expected one more rate hike this year, but stressed that economic data would still drive policy decisions.
Read more: What the Fed’s rate hike pause means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
The third quarter earnings season is also attracting attention. Earnings season kicks off on Thursday with announcements from Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Walgreens (WBA), and begins in earnest with big bank results on Friday. Earnings growth is expected to slow, but some analysts believe the low bar could provide some surprises.
Oil prices erased recent declines after Russia and Saudi Arabia showed solidarity by pledging to further cut oil production. But the market mood remains volatile as Israel builds up its forces in preparation for an expected ground offensive on Gaza. Crude oil futures (CL=F) rose to over $84 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures (BZ=F) also rose to trade around $87.
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September inflation report shows Fed can ‘continue its patience’
Thursday’s inflation report was slightly higher than expected. But if you remove volatile categories such as food, energy and housing, economists see a downward trajectory for the Fed, which spent several days before inflation showed a bias against raising interest rates in November. That’s a welcome sign.
“The underlying trend in inflation remains declining,” Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in response to Thursday’s announcement. “This report does not change the message Fed officials have been sending in recent days that they have the luxury of patience.”
Importantly, the inflation report maintains the basis for the Fed’s suspension at its November meeting.
After a tough two weeks in which rising yields and the Federal Reserve’s “long-term interest rate hike” stance weighed on stock prices, last Friday’s jobs report signaled a clear shift in investor sentiment. The report showed that the labor market remained tight and that while employment was rising faster than expected, wage growth remained at the slowest pace in more than two years.
The dovish comments from Fed officials came in the wake of the jobs report, as many at the Fed are starting to think that the recent rise in bond yields may be leading to monetary tightening. As a result, the Fed may hold off on raising interest rates in November, officials said.
This commentary, combined with recent economic data, has the market increasingly betting that the Fed won’t raise rates in 2023. As of Thursday morning, markets were pricing in a 12% chance that the Fed would raise rates in November, down from a 41% chance for the month. Before.
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Stock price flat open
Stocks were quiet at the opening bell on Thursday as investors digested mixed inflation reports.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), S&P 500 (^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC) were all little changed.
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Inflation slowed slightly in September
The consumer price index (CPI) in September increased by 0.4% from the previous month and by 3.7% from the previous year. According to the latest data From the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The year-over-year increase was slightly higher than the 3.6% annualized increase expected by economists, according to Bloomberg data. Economists had expected a 0.3% rise from the previous month.
On a “core” basis, which excludes more volatile food and gas prices, prices rose 4.1% in September from a year earlier, but slowed from August’s 4.3% annualized rise, according to Bloomberg data. Monthly core prices rose 0.3%, in line with economists’ expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
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Stock futures rise on CPI update
Stocks were poised to open higher on Thursday as investors awaited the release of U.S. consumer inflation data.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) futures rose 0.33% (112 points) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) futures rose 0.37%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) contract rose 0.34%.
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