Housing market data in recent weeks has shown signs of stabilizing as the spring sales season begins.
Mortgage rates are on a downward trend, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping to 6.28% from 6.32% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. This was his fourth consecutive week of declines as the banking crisis that began four weeks ago put pressure on Treasury yields.
A fall in interest rates will also come when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in March.
Yields on 10-year government bonds, which are tied to the average 30-year mortgage rate, fell from 4% in early March to 3.41% over the weekend.
“Commercial mortgage loans can become increasingly difficult to access, but residential mortgage loans can become increasingly difficult,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said in a press release. are expected to become more readily available,” he said.
The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that mortgage applications fell 4.1% in the week ending March 31. came out last week.
The decline was preceded by four straight weeks of increases in mortgage applications.
“Mortgage rates are no longer rising, but they are likely to remain high for some time,” Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson said in a recent note to clients. [home] If affordability improves, the price will do the hard work. Prices have fallen about 5% since the summer and are expected to fall another 15% next year, restoring the pre-Covid price-to-income ratio. “
Here’s a summary of key housing data locations for the first few months of 2023.
pending home sale
Signed contracts to buy existing US homes increased in February, marking the third straight month of growth. According to data released on March 29, by the National Association of Realtors.
Contract signings increased in all regions of the country except the West. Pending sales increased 6.5% from last month in the Northeast, 0.4% in the Midwest and 0.7% in the South. Out West pending home sales he fell 2.4%.
“Affordable Midwest and Southern regions are leading the recovery,” Yoon said.
home builder emotions
US homebuilder confidence rose slightly in March, marking the third month in a row that builders are more optimistic about the US housing market.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Builder Sentiment Index rose two points to 44, according to figures released on March 15. Analysts expected the index to reach 40.
“Builders continue to stubbornly deal with high construction costs and material supply chain disruptions as buyers wait for interest rates to fall and a shortage of existing homes makes them look more to the new housing market. , they continue to report strong demand for inventory,” NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer in Birmingham, Alabama, wrote in a press release.
Housing construction starts
Housing starts rose 9.8% in February to an annualized rate of 1.45 million, the fastest pace since September last year. The Department of Commerce made the announcement on March 16.
Single-family starts increased 1.1% to 830,000 annually, while multi-family starts increased 24% to 608,000 units. Starts increased in all regions except the Northeast in February.
Sale of existing homes
Pre-owned home sales rose 14.5% in February to an annualized rate of 4.58 million units, the largest monthly increase since July 2020. According to data released by the National Association of Realtors on March 21,The increase was also the end of a 12-month slide.
The annual rate of existing home sales exceeded economists’ expectations of 4.2 million units, according to Bloomberg data. NAR data show that the median selling price of existing homes fell 0.2% to $363,000 compared to a year ago.
“In areas where home prices have fallen and the local economy is creating more jobs, sales have increased significantly,” Yun said.
About 57% of homes sold in February were on the market less than a month ago.
new home sales
New single-family home sales rose 1.1% in February to an annualized rate of 640,000, up from 633,000 in January. Report released by the Census Bureau on March 23. This figure is 19% below the pace seen a year ago.
The median sales price for new homes in February was $438,200, with the average sales price reaching $498,700.
At the end of the month, there were seasonally adjusted estimates of 436,000 new homes on the market. This equates to approximately eight months of supply at current sales rates.
Zillow’s senior economist Orphe Divounguy said in a statement that low inventory means that “while buyer demand is also increasing, builders may still face the challenge of completing units. is high,” he said.
Case-Shiller house prices
Data released on March 28 show that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index fell 0.5% in January compared to the previous month. On an annual basis, the index rose 3.8% in January, down from 5.6% the previous month. Month.
The report’s 20 Cities Composite Index, which tracks prices in 20 metropolitan areas, showed January prices were down 0.6% from the previous month and up just 2.5% from last year. According to the report, the year ending January 2023 he reported lower prices in all 20 cities compared to the year ending December 2022.
Dani Romero is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. follow her on her twitter @daniromerotv
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