Future Markets: Gold Rising, USD Falling, GBP/USD, EIR/USD Rising
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The dollar continues to rise as traders are pricing in a series of aggressive rate cuts next year. U.S. Treasury yields are falling and the U.S. dollar is at risk against a variety of currencies. Thursday’s US GDP data was lower than expected, and Friday’s core PCE data was also lower than expected. Both of these announcements supported the decline in the US dollar.
U.S. third quarter GDP revised downward, dollar index drags and gold rises
The drop in the US PCE price index puts further pressure on DXY as gold rises to $2,070 per ounce.
USD index in bearish pennant formation
Gold rose after both US data releases, hitting $2,070 per ounce. before returning profits on Friday. A weaker U.S. dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields have made gold more attractive, with a new test of December 4’s skyrocketing high of $2,147/oz. It is scheduled to be realized in early 2024.
According to individual trader data, the long-to-short ratio of traders is 1.48:1, with 59.65% of traders being net long. The number of net long traders decreased by 6.22% from yesterday and increased by 1.59% from last week. Traders’ net short is 2.46% higher than yesterday and 5.68% higher than last week.
See what daily and weekly sentiment changes mean for the gold outlook.
change |
long |
shorts |
OI |
every day | 0% | 0% | 0% |
weekly | -2% | 11% | 3% |
U.S. stock markets continued to ride the risk-on trend, closing just below recent multi-year highs on Friday. Stock market sentiment remains positive, and the return to trading in early January will see fresh gains as the index corrects.
Chart of the week – 2-year government bond yields – good news for UK mortgages
Technical and fundamental forecasts – including December 25th
Pound Sterling Forecast: GBP/USD to rise despite increasing calls for interest rate cuts
Global government bond yields are racing to the bottom as central bankers prepare markets for a series of rate cuts in 2024.
Euro weekly forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY face weak week due to lack of data and thin liquidity
EUR/USD broke through the psychological 1.1000 level before the weekend, but any thoughts of further upside may not materialize until the new year is in full swing.
Gold weekly forecast: XAU/USD gains on softer US inflation outlook
Gold prices are expected to increase further into the final trading week of 2023, but the impact is not expected to be significant in terms of volatility. XAU/USD is expected to sustain above $2,050.
USD on thin ice, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD setup for the last day of 2023
This article focuses on the technical outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD and analyzes important price thresholds to monitor in the last trading session of 2023.
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