(Kitco News) – Wiz Money With prices rising to within range of $2,100 an ounce and Friday’s new record settlement, the market is gearing up for an important week ahead filled with significant macroeconomic risks.
April gold futures settled at $2,095.70 an ounce on Friday, a new high for the precious metal and up more than 2% from last week. Thursday’s rally began as prices rose above initial resistance above $2,050 an ounce as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure showed steady gains in consumer prices. Ta.
of Money The market has posted its best weekly gain since November.
Silver, on the other hand, managed to end the week up 1%, pushing the price above $23 per ounce. Although silver continues to underperform, Moneysome analysts say remains an attractive value play in a bull market.
Despite the late start, disappointing economic data on Friday led to some weakness in the US dollar. Money and the Silver Room, which quickly moves upwards.
“The rise on Thursday and Friday has been reconfirmed.” Money“The company has the ability to beat its 50-day moving average, but it wasn’t able to do that a month ago,” said Alex Kupczykevich, senior market analyst at FXPro.
meanwhile Money Kupczykevich added that the price has managed to break through the $2,050 resistance and the next major resistance to watch is $2,088. At the same time, if this momentum continues, the market could see significant upside.
“There is also a longer-term scenario. The pullback from the beginning of the year to mid-February is a classic Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of the initial growth impulse from the October low. The realization of this scenario is $2255 “It will be a step forward,” he said.
But even though it ends the week on a strong note, not all analysts are convinced that gold is on the way up. Nicky Shields, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, said in a note on Thursday that gold’s move overseas could be the result of months of consolidation in gold prices.She said she could push forward with momentum. Money Prices have gone up, but the basic situation remains the same for now.
“Positioning” Money Silver and silver remained neutral and short, respectively, with price action technically compressed and the overall sentiment in precious metals burning out, which was exactly the recipe for a huge unexplained move. “Was PCE a game changer? No, there is not enough data to declare that disinflation is ending, and the Fed may never cut rates,” she said in a note. “Can the technical rally be extended?” Of course. However, this will not be the trigger to attract new investor interest, and ultimately it will be the clues provided by paper shorts and macros, as physical ones cannot be chased. Overall, gold bids remain high. ”
Market analysts at CPM Group are also not optimistic whether the gold market will be able to sustain Friday’s gains as it has fallen into a clear trading pattern.
“Money Every time the price tests resistance, it is mostly sold, and when the price tests strong support, investors return to the market and start new longs again. As a result, gold prices have moved in a wide range, mostly above $2,000,” analysts said in a note late Friday.
“Money The price is currently testing $2,100 and yesterday broke firmly above $2,050. “The market is looking for reasons to go long gold and appears to be taking profits as technical resistance levels are tested,” the analyst added. “It is unclear whether prices will continue to rise in the short term, but they have already risen significantly, suggesting a short-term pullback due to profit taking.” A decline in price could push gold back toward $2,075, which could present a buying opportunity if the upward momentum continues. ”
Some analysts say gold could face a big test next week when February’s non-farm employment data is released. At the same time, markets will be watching closely to see what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has to say during two days of Congressional testimony.
Adam Button, chief currency strategist at ForexLive.com, said next week’s labor market data will likely garner more attention next week as it could have a bigger impact on the US dollar.
He said weaker labor market data could have more of an impact on the dollar than Powell’s statements.
“We basically know what Chairman Powell is going to say. Interest rates are going to go down, but they’re not going to go down right away,” he said. “He will also likely say that the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor incoming data. Weak job growth could persist. MoneyThis is a gathering. ”
It’s not just U.S. economic indicators that can impact the dollar. The European Central Bank is scheduled to meet next week to decide on monetary policy, and its hawkish stance could support the euro in the short term.
Commodity analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said they expected the ECB to take a cautious stance next week after the latest European inflation data was higher than expected.
Economic data to watch next week:
Tuesday: ISM Service PMI
Wednesday: ADP employment statistics, Bank of Canada monetary policy decisions, Chairman Powell testimony before the House of Commons Financial Services Committee, JOLTS recruitment
Thursday; European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting, Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims.Mr. Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee
Friday: Non-Agricultural Employment Report
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