market:
- Gold climbs $19 to $1916
- US 10-Year Yield Falls 14bps to 4.19%
- WTI crude falls $1.08 to $78.55
- S&P 500 climbs 51 points to 4449
- Australian dollar leads, pound lags
Are any of these moves significant ahead of NVDA’s earnings?
Behind the scenes, markets welcomed the weakness in S&P Global’s U.S. PMI. This is an indicator of a good future outlook for the market and showed an unexpected decline indicating that the Fed’s rate hikes are working. It also shows that bad news is good news for risk assets, assuming the Fed ends its rate hikes and cuts by about 100bps next year. The risk is that Mr. Powell will bounce back on Friday (although the market may simply not believe Mr. Powell).
In any case, the dollar fell steadily following the data, coinciding with weak PMIs in the UK and the eurozone. Crude fell on the data, but USD/CAD reversed from 1.3600 to 1.3535 anyway as risk trading prevailed.
The Prigogine plane crash confirms many suspicions about what might happen to the leader of the rebellion against Putin, and now we await every possible aftermath. But for the broader market, it was more of a curiosity than a reason to trade.