US traders returned to the stock and bond markets today after yesterday’s Juneteen holiday. Of course, the forex market never sleeps, so it was open yesterday, but with a more limited move.
From the strongest to the weakest of the major currencies
The yen was seen as the strongest among major currencies and the Australian dollar as the weakest in today’s foreign exchange market. The Australian dollar’s fall was aided by less hawkish RBA meeting minutes and slower growth in China. The People’s Bank of China cut prime rates for one-year and five-year loans by 10 basis points to 3.55% and 4.20% respectively, a disappointment for traders. AUD and NZD could backfire on China’s economic fortunes. The US dollar has mostly risen, only depreciating against the yen in response to lower interest rates.
In the United States today, May building permits exceeded expectations, up 5.2% month-over-month against expectations of 0.6%. The annual rate rose to 1,491,000 from 1,416,000 in the previous month. Housing starts were also well above expectations, rising 21.7% m/m to 1.631 million (1.4 billion forecast). Housing starts were 1.34 million units last month. The increase was the largest monthly increase since October 2016.
The Philadelphia Fed’s non-manufacturing index was not as strong, with -16.6 in June and -16.0 in May. Most of the indicators have dropped significantly. The business activity index at the firm level was -7.5 compared to -9.5 in May, and the new orders index fell to -16.2 from 2.7 in the previous month, indicating a notable change in the employment component of full-time employment. rice field. The employment index plummeted to -14.3 from 14.9 in May. Part-time employment also fell from -1.3 to -8.8, while average weekly hours worked, open orders, inventories, capital expenditures and sales were all negative. The wages and benefits index also fell to 22.2 from 35.3 in May.
Looking at the prices paid and received again showed weak values. The price paid index, which measures the cost of inputs, fell 21 points to 20.8, the lowest since October 2020. As for the price of its own goods and services, the incoming price index fell from 21.6 to -5.8, marking this. Nearly 12% of companies reported a decline in received prices, outpacing the 6% where received prices increased. The majority of businesses (60%) reported no change in the prices of their goods and services. The data suggests that while prices for firms’ own products and services have generally declined, the rise in input costs has been less widespread.
Mr. Barr, Mr. Williams and Mr. Bullard of the Fed spoke today, but none of them commented on economic policy or specifics. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify at the Capitol tomorrow and Thursday. The Fed held off a rate hike last week, but prepared the market for the remaining 50 basis points of rate hikes in 2023 (depending on data).
UK inflation data will be released tomorrow along with the Fed Chairman’s testimony. GBPUSD fell below the 100-hour moving average of 1.2762 today to a low of 1.2713 before rebounding back to the moving average towards the 5pm close. Canada will release retail sales figures, and the presidents of the Cook, Jefferson and Goolsby Feds will speak.
Another market snapshot today found:
- Crude oil prices fell -1.17%
- Gold fell in response to the dollar’s strength. It is down -$13.41 or -0.69% at $1935.70.
- Silver is down $0.78 or -3.27% and is trading at $23.14.
- Bitcoin rose today, trading at $28,143.Price will rise above the 100-day moving average of $27,620
All major U.S. stock indices fell early in the trading week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average performing the worst.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -0.72%. Rising for 3 consecutive weeks
- The S&P index fell -0.47%. Rising for 5 consecutive weeks
- The Nasdaq index fell -0.16%. Rising for 8 consecutive weeks
Yields are lower in that market in the United States.
- 2Y Yield 4.684% -3.8 basis points
- 5-Year Yield 3.944% -4.9 basis points
- 10 year yield 3.718% -5.0 basis points
- 30 year yield 3.812% -4.4 basis points
