Discover this week’s events and trading themes that could move the market. T.he a week ago
Trader Commitment – As of Tuesday 23rdrd May 2023:
- Traders reduced their net long exposure to EUR/USD futures by -13.4 thousand contracts (-7.1%).
- Net short exposure to yen futures rises to 30-week high
- Net Short Exposure to Swiss Franc Futures Declines to Just -903 Contracts (Lowest Since Sept 2021)
- New Zealand dollar futures traders were looking to switch to net long exposures ahead of the RBNZ meeting
EUR/USD Futures: Trader’s Commitment (COT)
We have highlighted the potential for extreme sentiment in EUR/USD futures, but it seems as though the bulls are seriously questioning net long exposure. A combination of trimmed longs and new shorts caused net long exposure to decline in the first of the six weeks to -13.4k contracts (or -7.1%), the fastest pace in nearly a year. 8.7k long contracts closed and 4.7k long contracts added. And according to Federal Funds futures pricing, the odds of betting on a 25bp rate hike by the Fed in June are currently at ~655, suggesting further longs could be pulled out in the coming weeks. ing.
Trader Commitment – As of Tuesday 23rdrd May 2023:
- Net short exposure to S&P 500 futures hits second weakest level on record
- Net long exposure to Nasdaq and Dow Jones futures reduced for second straight week
- Big Speculators Were Most Bearish on 10-Year Note Futures in History
S&P 500 Futures: Trader’s Commitment (COT)
Similar to EUR/USD, we have warned of the potential for extreme sentiment in the S&P 500 futures market. Last week, big speculators took their most bearish stance on S&P 500 futures to their second-highest level since late 2007. However, a closer look at the data reveals that the rise in S&P 500 futures prices is largely explained by short covering. Over the past 10 weeks, long exposures have remained fairly flat. However, such extreme positioning still leaves plenty of room for further profit if shorts cover or longs join. Markets are closed on Monday due to the three-day holiday in the US, but there are still four days left this week to see if the S&P 500 can break out of last week’s highs and rally towards August 2022 highs.
Trader Commitment – As of Tuesday 23rdrd May 2023
- Large speculators cut net long positions in gold in week 2 (fastest weekly pace in 3 months)
- Managed funds reduce long bet exposure to gold futures in week 3
- Net short exposure to palladium futures rises to four-week high
Gold Futures (GC): Trader’s Commitment (COT)
The deals that had to happen are likely to happen, which means gold loses some of its appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, we have already seen traders anticipating this over the past few weeks, with large speculators and managed funds slashing their long exposure to gold and increasing their short bets. rice field. And with Federal Funds futures now suggesting there is about a 65% chance that the Fed will raise rates in June, the US dollar is allowed to rise for three weeks and weigh on gold prices. rice field. but, Strong technical support around 1934 helped the stock recover despite a strong dollar. And we believe there may be a corrective rally into the 1950-1960 region before break support emerges.
Trader Commitment FAQ
What is a COT report?
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is a weekly publication that shows the total holdings of various participants in the US futures market. To increase the exchange’s transparency, we provide a snapshot of trading commitments as of Tuesday of the week.
COT reports are used in a variety of markets, so you can get reports on forex, gold, indices, and more.
How do you read a trader’s commitment report?
A trader’s commitment report is read in a tabular format, with each row representing a market and each column displaying an open interest, a long position, and a short position. You can also see which parties, such as dealers, institutions, and funds, have taken the positions.
COT is an important data source for traders as it can provide guidance on whether to go long or short in each market.
When will the COT report be released?
COT reports are published on the CFTC website every Friday at 15:30 ET. This is 20:30 GMT, or 7:30 Saturday AEST. Get expert analysis as early as possible every week to keep you up to date with the COT report.