- EUR/USD rose 0.07% on the day, registering a small gain around 1.0665.
- Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s policy meeting.
- European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde said the possibility of further interest rate cuts was not being considered by policymakers.
- Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is closely watched by traders.
EUR/USD rebounded from a multi-month low of 1.0631 in early Asian trading on Monday, reversing recent losses. On the other hand, the US dollar index (DXY) has been rising for nine consecutive weeks at around 105.30, supported by strong US economic indicators. The major currency pair is currently trading around 1.0665, up 0.07% on the day.
On Friday, the New York Fed reported that the Empire State Manufacturing Business Index improved to 1.9 in August from -19 when last measured, beating the market consensus of a 10-point decline. Moreover, industrial production rose 0.4% month-on-month, up from 1% in July, beating market expectations.
Furthermore, the University of Michigan revealed that its consumer confidence index for September fell to 67.7 from the expected 69.1. Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations for five years are 2.7%, previously he was 3%.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s policy meeting, with one more rate hike on hold. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference afterwards, but no major changes are expected at the Fed. However, the dovish stance of the authorities could cause a decline in the US dollar (USD), which could be a tailwind for EUR/USD.
On the euro issue, European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde said on Friday that policymakers were not considering the possibility of further interest rate cuts. He added that the ECB could keep interest rates high for a long time and raise them again if necessary. It should be recalled that the ECB last week raised its key policy rate to a record high of 4%, but signaled that its 10th consecutive rate hike was likely to be the last. This could cause the euro to weaken against the US dollar.
Looking ahead, Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting will be a closely watched event. Market participants expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. Regarding the euro, the Eurozone Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) for August will be released on Tuesday, and the preliminary HCOB Composite PMI for September will be released on Friday. Traders will take cues from these numbers and find trading opportunities around the EUR/USD pair.