EUR/CHF extended its recovery from 0.9402 last week, but failed to break through the resistance at 0.9543 and reversed from there. The initial bias remains neutral this week, with further decline expected. On the downside, a solid break above 0.9407 would confirm the resumption of a larger downtrend. The next target is 0.9683 to 0.9325, 61.8% prediction of 0.9995-0.9416. However, a sustained break at 0.9543 will result in a further rebound to the resistance at 0.9683 instead.
Looking at the big picture, the medium-term outlook remains bearish as long as the resistance level at 0.9683 persists. A solid break above 0.9407 (2022 low) will resume the long-term downtrend. The next target is a 61.8% prediction from 0.9018 at 1.0095 to 0.9407 at 1.1149 (2020 high).
In the longer term, the outlook remains bearish as it remains well below the 55 million EMA (currently 1.0307). A larger downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is underway, breaking through the low of 0.9407.
