Dow Jones futures were little changed early Friday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. June’s employment report holds high hopes.
X
Stock market gains eased on Thursday as US Treasury yields surged on the back of strong economic data, but the index narrowed its morning losses slightly. Private sector employment soared to 497,000 in June, more than double expectations, according to the ADP Jobs Report. The ISM services sector index rose more than expected. Initial unemployment claims rose slightly, but the four-week average fell and continued claims fell. Job cuts announced last month have been significantly reduced.
meta platform (meta) held up well, with its Threads app garnering 30 million registrations in less than a day against its Twitter rival, and perhaps 48 million in 24 hours. This is the fastest download ever. Twitter has threatened legal action against its new rival. Tesla (TSLA) Twitter CEO Elon Musk said “cheating” is not good.
microsoft (MSFTMore) rebounded amid the price target hike.
Looking for holdings. visa (V.) and master Card (pose) is held in the buy zone and Dexcom (DXCM). Nvidia (NVDA) continues to trade strongly. hubspot (hub) fell Thursday morning but attracted major support.
Meanwhile, the FDA approved Biogen’s Alzheimer’s drug Lekumbi late Thursday. biogen (BIIB) and partner Eisai have already accelerated approval, but full FDA approval would increase the likelihood of receiving Medicare reimbursement for Rekumbi.
Biogen shares were flat on Friday after an overnight suspension. Shares fell 0.3% on Thursday. eli lilly (Lily), a similar Alzheimer’s disease drug is in trials. It rose overnight. LLY shares fell 0.5% on Thursday.
META Stock, Nvidia and HubSpot On IBD Leaderboard. Microsoft stock is listed in his IBD Long-Term Leaders. HUB inventory is IBD Big Cap 20.
The video embedded in this article discusses Thursday’s market dynamics and analyzes the MSFT stock. Adobe (Adobe) and HubSpot.
Job Report: What to Expect
The Labor Department will release its June jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Economists expect employment to rise by 213,000, down from 339,000 in May. The unemployment rate should drop to 3.6%. Average hourly wage growth is expected to slow to 4.2% from 4.3% in May.
The ADP does not have a great track record of predicting Labor non-farm payrolls. Still, the odds of the Fed raising rates on July 26 are now almost certain, at 93%. The odds of another quarter-point rate hike in November rose to about 46% on Thursday, up significantly from a few weeks ago.
dow jones futures today
1 Dow Jones futures were flat against fair value. S&P 500 futures fell and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.15%.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose two basis points to 4.06%.
Crude oil prices rose slightly. Copper futures rose nearly 1%.
US Treasury yields and Dow futures are sure to move wildly ahead of the open following the jobs report.
Note that overnight trading such as Dow Futures does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market.
IBD experts analyze hot stocks during the stock market rally on IBD Live.
stock market bull market analysis
Equity market gains were sold off on a spike in yields after the ADP report, but the index closed low. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed 10 basis points to 4.04%, its highest level in four months. Yields on two-year bonds surged to a 16-year high of 5.12% during the day before rising five basis points to 5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% in stock market trading on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%. Small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.6% after falling 1% on Wednesday.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are supporting near the 10-day moving average. But the Dow was below the 10-day and 21-day lines and not far from the 50-day average.
Thursday’s market spread was the worst, with losers beating winners 6-1 on the New York Stock Exchange and 3-1 on the Nasdaq. This followed Wednesday’s negative range.
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) down 0.8%, the First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF (QQEW) gave up 1.3%. However, both rallied from the 21st line.
US crude oil prices rose 1 cent to $71.80 a barrel.
Major stocks fell further on Thursday. Many had support at key levels, but not all.
ETFs
Among Growth ETFs, Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) decreased by 2%. iShares Augmented Technology Software Sector ETF (IGV) abandoned just over 1%. MSFT stock is a major component of his IGV. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 1.2% after falling 1.9% on Wednesday. NVDA shares are #1 in his SMH holdings.
A stock that reflects a more speculative story, the ARK Innovation ETF (Arkuk) down 3.8%, the ARK Genomics ETF (Argu) 3.6%.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) decreased by 1.75%. US Global Jets ETF (Jets) fell 2.2%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) was reduced by 2%. Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) retreated 2.25% and the Healthcare Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) fell 0.8%.
Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) fell 0.75%.
Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) fell 0.9%, with Visa and MA dominating the XLF ETF. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 0.6%.
Top 5 Chinese stocks to watch right now
Metastock
META shares fell 0.8% to 291.99, performing strongly after rising 2.9% to a 17-month high on Wednesday on hopes of Threads launch.
The text-based Threads, part of Instagram, launched Wednesday night and garnered more than 30 million registrations within the first 16 hours. One media report, citing internal metadata, surpassed his 48 million signups in his first 24 hours. Even the numbers below are record highs for downloads on the first day. For comparison, ChatGPT achieved 1 million downloads in his first 5 days.
Threads appear to be Twitter’s biggest threat yet, with many celebrities, prominent journalists, and other influential Twitter users posting quickly. The site has struggled since Elon Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion last fall. Musk has put in place various restrictions that have alienated many users, especially advertisers.
A Twitter attorney threatened legal action against Meta. In a letter to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Alex Spiro wrote that Meta had poached a former Twitter employee and accused him of “unlawful misappropriation of Twitter’s trade secrets and other intellectual property.” accused of being involved in
In reply to Twitter’s tweet about legal threats, Musk wrote, “Competition is fine, cheating is.”
In response to Twitter’s legal threats, Meta said, “There are no former Twitter employees on the Threads engineering team.”
microsoft stock
Microsoft shares rose 0.9% to 341.27, rebounding from near the 21st line. Morgan Stanley raised its MSFT price target to 415 from 335. The stock has been volatile in recent weeks after hitting a record high of 351.47 on June 16. Investors may view the recent hiatus as a high hurdle to a price consolidation back into the second half of 2021. But investors should probably wait longer before looking to get into Microsoft stock.
Featured stock
Visa shares fell 0.2% to 238.88, continuing to outperform the buy point of 235.57 on a flat basis. Mastercard shares fell 0.3 percent to 393.14, just above the flat buying point of 392.20, according to MarketSmith analysis. The payment giants offered early entries last week, but both are still within the 50-day line.
Nvidia shares fell 0.5% to 421.03, above the 10-day line. The stock isn’t far from the 21-day line, but it hasn’t reached that short-term level in the last two months. NVDA stock has a 3-week tight pattern and could be 4-week tight after Friday. A try at the 21-day line, or perhaps the 400-day line, would be a good run-off, and the rapidly rising 50-day line might be able to close the gap. The official buy point is 439.90, but Wednesday’s high of 431.77 should be a factor for early entry.
DexCom shares fell 0.3% to 127.70 to close above the flat-based buy point of 126.44 after finding support at the 21st line for the third straight trading. DXCM stock has been struggling to clear the range since early November. However, since the end of January, the stock price has been on an unstable upward trend.
HubSpot rose 0.1% to 521.34 to close above the 21st line. The stock fell to an intraday low of 497.03, but rebounded from the 10-week line. Investors who bought HUBS shares in an attempt to break out of a four-week stock market squeeze at the end of June may have been shaken out. But it could be set up again.
Timing the Market with IBD’s ETF Market Strategy
what to do now
New or new market pullbacks can be constructive, and pullbacks to key levels can create new buying opportunities and lay foundations.
But investors don’t know if the current sell-off will soften again, or if their positions will hold relatively well.
Especially for new purchases, it’s time to consider reducing your profits a little and cutting losses immediately.
Meanwhile, investors should look for constructive rebounds and stocks that hold key levels and show relative strength, such as HUBS shares, Visa, and possibly Nvidia. In the next few days, the watchlist may again need major revisions. But the effort could pay off big when the market rally accelerates again.
Read “The Big Picture” daily to stay on top of market direction and key stocks and sectors.
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