NEW YORK (Reuters) – Investors are awaiting inflation data for further signs of whether inflation pressures will abate and what that means for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The dollar fell on Tuesday as it fell.
Wednesday’s consumer price data showed headline inflation rising by 0.2% and core inflation by 0.4% in March. (USCPI=ECI), (USCPF=ECI)
“A lot of traders are watching this inflation data,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. complicates the behavior of
The Fed is likely to raise rates by another 25 basis points at its May 2-3 meeting before pausing in June. Markets are pricing in a rate cut by the Fed by the end of the year in line with the expected recession, but Fed officials have stressed the need to keep rates high to keep inflation in check.
Strong employment data in March raised hopes that the US central bank would complete another rate hike. Employers added 236,000 jobs to him and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, according to Friday’s data.
New York Fed President John Williams said the prospect of the Fed raising its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points is a useful starting point, but the central bank’s policy direction will depend on further data.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsby said the U.S. central bank should be cautious about raising interest rates in the face of recent bank stress, saying the reduction in bank lending has quelled inflation and left monetary policy alone. He said he would make less room.
Meanwhile, according to a New York Fed report, the Federal Reserve is on a path to reduce its large cash and bond inventories over the next few years, and is likely to see negative net income for several more years.
The dollar index fell 0.26% to 102.20. The euro rose 0.41% to $1.0906.
The euro may also have been boosted by higher European bond yields on Tuesday as regional traders returned after markets were closed for the Easter holidays on Friday and Monday.
Simon Harvey, head of currency analysis at Monex Europe, said he would trade currencies based on interest rate differentials between Europe and the United States if U.S. bond yields rose following the jobs report and European bond markets closed. Algorithms may have sold euros for dollars, he said.
European bond yields surged Tuesday, catching up after break. GVD/EUR
“It’s just a catch-up effect running through,” Harvey said.
The dollar edged higher against the yen after surging Monday as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled he was in no hurry to roll back his massive stimulus package. The dollar is at 133.73 he has risen 0.08% against the Japanese currency.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has broken through the key $30,000 level for the first time in 10 months. He was up 1.9% to $30,219 on the day.
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Currency bid price at 2:38 PM (1838 GMT)
Reported by Karen Brettell. Additional reporting by her Alun John in London.Edited by Alexander Smith
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