For bigger Parts of Africa 2023 was a difficult year. Violence has spread across the Sahel, where coups and civilian mismanagement have shaken faith in democracy. Sudan’s devastating civil war, fueled by outside forces, is spreading relentlessly, with fighting breaking out on December 15 in Wad Madani, a city 200 kilometers south of the war-torn capital Khartoum. Government debt levels across the region have reached their highest level since 2001, while economic growth in the world’s youngest continent is barely outpacing population growth.World share of sub-Saharan Africa currently measured in dollars GDP This fell to just 1.9%, compared to 18% of the world’s population. Why did things go wrong in Africa in 2023, and what does that mean for her continent in 2024?
The best place to start is also the darkest. Sudan’s civil war. The enormity of Sudan’s civil war is not yet fully understood by the outside world, with Sudanese politicians and citizens focusing on the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Struggles broke out between the military and rapid support forces in April (RSF), a paramilitary organization that currently has more than 7 million displaced people. The reported death toll is 12,000, but the actual death toll is likely much higher. Peace talks by Saudi Arabia have failed to stop the violence.of RSFAfter the attack on Wad Madani, it now has the upper hand in the war and is widely understood to be armed and financed by the United Arab Emirates (United Arab Emirates),however, United Arab Emirates denies this. America and other Western countries said and did little to stop the genocide. RSFIn the Darfur region, a region of Sudan with a large black African population, a group of mainly Arab armed men committed an act that could amount to genocide.
The Sudanese disaster occurred in parallel with the escalation of other conflicts. Jihadist groups associated with al-Qaeda and Islamic State (teeth) continues to terrorize the Sahel region. They control large swaths of territory in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, threatening the densely populated and economically important coastal states of the Gulf of Guinea. In Benin, for example, there were 182 attacks targeting civilians from January to the end of November, an increase of 75% compared to the same period in 2022. ACLED, research group. On the other side of the continent, a civil war in Ethiopia that killed 600,000 people ended in November 2022, and ethnic conflicts continue to smolder. The possibility of escalating violence there in 2024 should not be underestimated. The country’s messianic Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has raised fears that he could go to war with Eritrea or its neighbors over access to the Red Sea.
Looking further down the map of Africa, another hotspot is the Democratic Republic of Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo). A chaotic election was held on December 20th. Although the results are not yet clear, several opposition candidates have already called for new elections.Meanwhile, violence between the military and the government intensifies MThe 23rd rebel group, backed by Rwanda, evacuated approximately 450,000 people in the six weeks to the end of November. Some fear that a full-scale war may be brewing between the two countries. The last time it happened was in 1998, when a conflagration engulfed eight states and killed more than 3 million people, mostly from disease and starvation. The United States and other countries are working to ease tensions. Whether we can avoid a repeat of that nightmare will shape the lives of millions in 2024.
The increase in violence is paralleling another worrying trend: a decline in Africans’ confidence in democracy. According to polling firm Afrobarometer, only 38% of people say they are satisfied with their country’s democracy. Support for military regimes has increased since 2014 in 24 of the 30 countries surveyed. Widespread insecurity helps explain some of the dissatisfaction, even though military regimes have not made Africa safer. After Niger’s generals overthrew the country’s democratically elected president in July, political violence soared 42% in one month. A series of coups in other Sahel countries over the past few years have had similar results, including two each in Mali and Burkina Faso. The generals seek to justify their power grab by making France, West Africa’s former colonial power, a scapegoat. France has kept troops in the region to fight jihadism, but they are now being forced out. Soldiers promise to restore democracy. Don’t hold your breath. Elections in Mali were scheduled for February 2024. In September, the military government announced the postponement, citing “technical reasons.”
Democracy in Africa is not dead. However, the situation is worsening in the most important countries. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, elected a new president, Bola Tinubu, in March. Powers were peacefully changed. However, the vote was marred by fraud, with only one in four eligible Nigerians bothering to vote. Mr Tinubu has since introduced much-needed reforms, particularly the removal of exorbitant petrol subsidies. However, according to the World Bank, this change was not fully implemented. South Africans heading to the polls in 2024 are even more apathetic. In fact, 72% say they would surrender democracy to a leader who can bring jobs and reduce crime.
Amid escalating violence and strains on democracy, there is a third concern plaguing Africa: debt.Total government debt in sub-Saharan Africa rises to 58% GDPSub-Saharan Africa’s external debt stock (money borrowed from abroad by governments and private companies) has reached 44% of national income. According to the World Bank, it more than doubled in the decade to 2022, growing 72% faster than national income. As central banks around the world raised interest rates, debt servicing costs ballooned. It is predicted to eat up more than a fifth of the tax revenues of 19 African countries by 2024, leaving less money for schools and hospitals.
Some countries made progress in debt repayment in 2023. Somalia was granted $4.5 billion in debt forgiveness. Zambia and Ghana, both in default, have entered into sovereign debt restructuring agreements. Nevertheless, Zambia faced a setback in November when creditors led by China and France rejected a proposed debt restructuring of about $4 billion to private bondholders. The big question in 2024 is how quickly Africa should restructure its domestic debt, which has grown even faster than its external debt over the past two decades. Huge writedowns will jeopardize the financial health of domestic banks, which carry large amounts of government debt on their books. This in turn has a negative impact on growth.
A ray of light appeared in the darkness. Liberia resisted trends toward both conflict and democratic decline. Just 20 years after a brutal civil war that killed perhaps 12 of the population, the country held its first peaceful elections. united nations Peacekeeping forces have been monitoring the situation since the end of the war. And despite the harsh outcome, incumbent President George Weah was quick to concede. Despite the global economic crisis, Ivory Coast was able to further accelerate its growth by over 6%, with a construction boom that transformed the capital, Abidjan. Benin and Rwanda also continued to experience vigorous growth. And beneath the surface, major trends began to change. Fertility rates in Africa began to decline more rapidly.
Additionally, 2023 will see Africa’s global status increase in many ways. One of her musical genres is Afrobeat, which the whole world sang in African slang. The climate summit hosted by Kenya has galvanized carbon market efforts.The African Union became a permanent member of the Council. G20 in September. The hope is that Africa will be able to speak louder and more confidently to the world. You’ll have a lot to talk about.■