2 hours ago
CNBC Pro: Morgan Stanley names three ‘high confidence’ global stock ideas, one of which could surge 40%
Morgan Stanley identified three Asia-Pacific stocks as “high confidence” viable trading ideas.
Wall Street said the deal idea is valid for 13 weeks from July 30, when it was first shared in a memo to clients.
The bank said the three stock proposals underscored “a viable and high-confidence call” made by its equity research team last week.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Ganesh Rao
2 hours ago
CNBC Pro: JPMorgan says the sector is in ‘pole position’ and names 5 global stocks likely to outperform
Analysts at JPMorgan named five global stocks in a sector they described as being in “pole position” following the Federal Reserve’s recent rate hike.
They expect the stock to outperform in the next 6-12 months and be included in Europe’s top stocks list.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Lucy Handley
2 hours ago
CNBC Pro: Morgan Stanley Still Favors These Chinese Stocks Despite Country Downgrade
Morgan Stanley downgraded MSCI China while raising its view on India.
Analysts expect volatility in China’s stock market to remain relatively high as investors fluctuate in expectations and disappointments with government policies.
However, they still recommend some Chinese consumer and industry names.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Evelyn Chen
Friday, August 4, 2023 2:27 PM EDT
Yield curve still suggests recession likely, New York Fed data shows
Market prices still show the U.S. is headed for recession, although recent economic data suggest otherwise, according to New York Fed data.
Central banks compare the yield differential between 3-month and 10-year government bonds. Data dating back to 1969 show that an inversion of this curve is a belated sign of a recession.
An update Friday morning put the probability of a recession over the next 12 months at 66%, based on yield spreads at the end of July. The reversal rate at the end of the month was close to 1.5 percentage points.
Although the recession probability has declined from its peak of 70.8% in May, it remains a strong market indicator that a recession is approaching.
— Jeff Cox
Friday, August 4, 2023 15:12 EDT
Bank of America says it still prefers bonds over stocks
The stock market has been boosted by expectations of a better-than-expected earnings season and a soft landing, according to Bank of America. The company added that Chinese stocks have outperformed remarkably.
Despite this, the company still favors bonds over stocks.
“Despite falling inflation and a trough in leading indicators, the regime model remains bearish over the medium term, favoring bonds over equities. By reducing underweights in bonds (and increasing shorts in equities), we are overweighting credit,” underweight across all three commodity sub-indices,” analyst Alex Saunders said in a note Friday. .
— Ha Kyung Kim
Friday, August 4, 2023 8:34 EDT
U.S. economy’s job gains fell short of expectations in July
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 in July, below the Dow forecast of 200,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, contrary to consensus expectations that it would stabilize at 3.6%.
Average hourly wages rose 0.4% in July.
— Ha Kyung Kim
Friday, August 4, 2023 9:13 AM EDT
July jobs data shows smallest increase since December 2020
The US economy added 187,000 jobs in July, up from 185,000 in June. The increase in nonfarm payrolls in this market is the smallest since December 2020.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% in June, the second straight month of decline and the lowest level since April when the unemployment rate hovered at 3.4%.
The labor force participation rate among workers in their prime fell to 83.4% in July after hitting its highest level since May 2002 in June.
— Gina Francola, Samantha Subin
