April 18 (Reuters) – Jamie McGeever’s Outlook on Asian Markets.
Investor attention on Tuesday is squarely on China. The latest twist in U.S.-China relations will do little to ease geopolitical concerns.
U.S. law enforcement officials Monday arrested two New York residents for running a Chinese “secret police station” in Manhattan’s Chinatown.
Also on Monday, US prosecutors accused 34 Chinese officials of running a “troll farm” and harassing dissidents online, including disrupting a meeting on a US technology platform. announced the indictment.
This comes amid heightened tensions between the world’s two superpowers, most recently over Taiwan. A US warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, days after China wrapped up its latest military exercises around Taiwan.
Investors are reacting with their feet. The world’s largest asset managers have sold off Chinese stocks in recent days and added U.S. energy stocks to their portfolios at a record pace, according to a Goldman Sachs report.
Investors might react differently if it were solely due to China’s economic data. By many indicators, the country’s reopening from nearly three years of Covid lockdown is going better than expected, with China’s economic surprise index hitting a 17-year high last week.
Tuesday’s figures are expected to show gross domestic product expanding 4.0% year-on-year, up 2.9% from the October-December period.
Annual growth rates for urban investment, industrial output and retail sales in March have also all risen sharply, with retail sales in particular, with economists forecasting a 7.4% rise, up from 3.5% in February. We expect it to more than double the rise.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s central bank is widely expected to keep its key rate unchanged at 5.75% for the third consecutive meeting and for the remainder of 2023.
Inflation has eased since Sep, but Mar’s 4.97% remains above Bank Indonesia’s target range of 2%-4%. But policymakers are confident that the previous tightening will return to target later this year.
Here are three major developments that could give the market more direction on Tuesday.
– Chinese “data dump”
– Policymaking of the Central Bank of Indonesia
– US Q1 earnings season picks up pace
By Jamie McGever.
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