summary
US: Swallowing tons of data
- This week brought a series of new macro data insights, the underlying details of which continue to paint a picture of an economy that gradually lost momentum in the fourth quarter. Retail and industrial activity was stronger than key data suggested, but there are some signs of weakening.
- Next week: LEI (Monday), used home sales (Tuesday), durable goods orders (Wednesday)
International: Expected downturn in G10 economic data
- This week’s report pointed to slowing growth in countries’ economies and slowing inflation. After strong growth in the first half of this year, Japan’s third-quarter GDP fell by an annualized 2.1% sequentially, a bigger decline than expected. The UK’s inflation rate in October sharply slowed to 4.6% compared to the same month last year.
- Next week: Canadian CPI (Tuesday), Eurozone PMI (Thursday), Japan CPI (Friday)
Interest rate watch: yields fall as inflation slows
- U.S. Treasury yields fell this week as markets digested October’s weaker-than-expected inflation data. At press time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.45%, down from 4.65% a week ago. This week’s inflation report reinforced the view that rate hikes by the FOMC are over.
Credit Market Insights: Credit card delinquencies increase in Q3
- The New York Fed released its quarterly household debt and credit report last week. Not only did each major category of household debt increase during the quarter, but delinquency rates also rose. In particular, delinquency rates for credit card debt are above pre-pandemic averages.
This week’s topic: Not-so-free birds: Thanksgiving-related inflation still rising but slowing
- Consumers have faced price pressures that continue to eat into their wallets in recent years, and this Thanksgiving is no exception. Although price increases for most items on Thanksgiving menus have eased significantly compared to a year ago, prices for Thanksgiving staples are still significantly higher than they were a few years ago. .
